Rate hike odds ratchet even higher as oil hits three-month high
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said it would be a mistake for the Fed to lift rates to combat a rise in inflation caused by a supply shock.
There’s plenty of evidence suggesting Bessent is correct, and the Maestro himself (former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) surely believed so.
Whether 6 or more of the 12 voters on the current Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee agree is another question, though.
With oil prices surging back to their summer highs on Tuesday afternoon as President Trump announced more military strikes against Iran, interest rate traders are betting the Fed is more likely to lift rates at its policy meeting in two weeks.
Per CME FedWatch , there’s now nearly a 70% chance the Fed hikes at that September meeting. That’s up from 65% yesterday and less than 40% just one week ago.
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